Following college football's 12th weekend of play,
eight teams now become harder to ignore-Louisiana Tech, Kansas, West
Virginia, Missouri, Ohio State, Arizona State, Hawaii and Boise State.
All have only 1 loss except Kansas and Hawaii remain unbeaten.
Sunday
night's (11-18-07) new AP Top 25 Poll showed LSU ranked 1st, Kansas
2nd, Missouri 3rd, West Virginia 4th, Ohio State 5th, Arizona State
7th, Hawaii 14th and Boise State 17th.
Monday's (11-19-07) new
BCS Standings showed LSU 1st, Kansas 2nd, West Virginia 3rd, Missouri
4th, Ohio State 5th, Arizona State 6th, Hawaii 15th and Boise State
19th.
The AP Poll by sports writers and broadcasters has no affect on who will play in the national championship game.
The
BCS standings determine the participants based upon a complicated
formula from 3 components: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris
Interactive College Football Poll, and an average of 6 computer
rankings, including the Sagarin Ratings. Each component counts as
one-third of a team's overall BCS score in the BCS Standings.
All
of that sounds pretty boring and it is, but do not underestimate the
importance of the BCS Standings because millions of dollars are at
stake. It is not just the BCS National Championship Game in New Orleans
on Jan. 8, 2008 that generates huge payouts to the teams and
conferences involved.
It is also 4 other official BCS Bowl Games
as well: the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 2008, the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 2008,
the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 2, 2008 and the Orange Bowl on Jan. 3, 2008.
The
total payout from the 5 BCS games this year will be $85 million and the
total economic impact on the 5 hosting cities is estimated at more than
$1.2 billion.
The bottom line is that at least 10 teams in the
top BCS Standings will play in these games. The champions of the 6
major NCAA conferences-the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 10, Big 12,
Pacific 10 (Pac 10) and Southeastern Conference (SEC)-are guaranteed a
spot in 1 of the 5 BCS games. The other slots are up for grabs under a
complicated set of qualifications.
One of those qualifications is
that a team outside of the 6 major conferences that finishes in the Top
12 of the final BCS Standings automatically qualifies.
Knowing
this salient fact you can better understand why Hawaii (at 15th place)
and Boise State (at 19th place) are so upset about their current BCS
Standings-neither is in the Top 12 despite Hawaii's 10-0 record and
Boise State's 10-1 record.
Western Athletic Conference
Commissioner Karl Benson spent most of the rest of his weekend trying
to convince "everyone and his dog Spot" about the great win Hawaii had
against Nevada, currently rated 97th by Sagarin among 119 Division 1A
schools. Hawaii finally won 28-26 on a 45-yard field goal with 11
seconds left.
Given the polls and the BCS Standings no one was listening or believing a word Benson had said.
Given
the 8 teams left in the hunt for a berth in the BCS National
Championship Game, Hawaii and Boise State are bit players with no real
chance at all. Thankfully, the two collide this weekend when Boise
State travels to Hawaii for a showdown.
After the game, one team
will rise in the BCS Standings and the other is likely to take an even
greater drop out of sight and out of mind.
Both Hawaii and Boise
State are great teams with great records and they both will get more
attention when they start playing some decent competition. Sagarin
rates Hawaii's strength of schedule (the quality of its opponents) at
153rd and Boise State's at 122nd.
Considering there are only 119
Division 1A teams you better believe these two teams have feasted on
inferior talent at best and deserve what they get.
Of the 6
remaining teams, who along with Hawaii and Boise State are either
unbeaten of have only 1 loss, at least 5 of the 6 have played
considerably better competition in their quest to be in the national
title game.
Arizona State (ranked 6th by the BCS at 9-1) has the
best Sagarin strength of schedule rating at 26th. LSU (ranked 1st by
the BCS at 10-1) is 27th, West Virginia (ranked 3rd by the BCS at 9-1)
is 42nd, Missouri (ranked 4th by the BCS at 10-1) is 47th, Ohio State
(ranked 5th by the BCS at 11-1) is 53rd, and bringing up the rear is
Kansas (ranked 2nd by the BCS at 11-0) at 101st among the 119 Division
1A schools.
Has Kansas been playing a weak schedule to put
together 11 straight wins? Yes. Kansas may end up playing the BCS
National Championship Game and winning, but there is no mistake that
Kansas has played an inferior schedule compared to its BCS competition.
Should
Hawaii and Boise State be ranked where they are in the BCS? Probably
not, given the level of their competition. Is Kansas overrated?
Probably so. All three can make me more of a believer should they
continue to win against better competition.
So I guess I am
begging the question: Who has played the toughest schedule so far this
season? Try the Washington Huskies, who are 3-7 on the year.
I
seriously doubt that Kansas, Hawaii or Boise State would have the
records they do if they had all played Ohio State, UCLA, Southern
California, Arizona State and Oregon-all in their prime-as Washington
has done.
That is why Washington is No. 1 in strength of schedule nationally and Kansas is 101st, Boise State 122nd and Hawaii 153rd.
Kansas
faces Missouri this Saturday in a Big 12 North Division showdown. The
winner will likely play Oklahoma or Texas from the South Division for
the Big 12 title and a BCS berth to somewhere.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Ed
Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary
on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and
Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate,
delight and motivate you the reader.
Read my articles on "How to
Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss", "The
Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With
Them" and my 14 consecutive weekly wrap-up articles on the 2007 College
Football Season.