While the BCS Standings may have had a mess in
determining which teams should play for college football's national
championship, it turns out that Ohio State and Louisiana State may have
been the best possible choice after all.
In analyzing the 10
teams that won this year's bowl lottery with the highest payouts for
the 5 major BCS bowl games, I created a new system to evaluate the
teams involved. Rather than add to the already flooded opinions about
who should or should not have been chosen, I have decided to apply some
cold, hard facts that are beyond dispute.
My basis is the actual
NCAA regular season team statistics for the 5 main offensive and 5 main
defensive categories. These are Scoring Offense, Total Offense, Rushing
Offense, Passing Offense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Scoring Defense,
Total Defense, Rushing Defense, Pass Defense and Pass Efficiency
Defense. A numerical value (1 to 5) was then assigned for the 119
Division 1A schools. The Top 10 in each category got a "Great" rating
of 5, the next 20 got a "Good" rating of 4, the next 59 an "Average"
rating of 3, the next 20 a "Poor" rating of 2, and the bottom 10 a
"Terrible" rating of 1.
The Great and Good ratings represent the
top 25% of the schools, the Average rating represents the middle 50%,
and the Poor and Terrible ratings represent the bottom 25% of the
schools. Given this system, the best quality game (not necessarily the
best game) during the bowl season may well be the Ohio State-Louisiana
State (LSU) match-up in the Allstate BCS National Championship Game.
Here is why:
1) A perfect score in the 5 defensive categories is
25 and Ohio State (11-1) fits the profile with a perfect 25 score. The
Buckeyes lead the nation in 4 of the 5 categories: Scoring Defense,
Total Defense, Pass Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense, and rank No. 3
in Rushing Defense. Ohio State is, in fact, the best defensive team in
the country based on actual results.
2) LSU (11-2) is among the
Top 10 teams in 3 defensive categories: No. 3 in Total Defense and Pass
Efficiency Defense, and No. 9 in Pass Defense. The Tigers are Good in
the other two categories for a total score of 23.
3) On offense
neither team is really good. Ohio State is Good in 2 categories and
Average in 3 others for a 17 total score, while LSU is Good in 3
categories and Average in 2 others for an 18 score.
4) Adding up
their offensive and defensive totals, Ohio State scores 42 out of a
perfect 50, and LSU scores 41. This should be a lower scoring defensive
battle with all of the earmarks of a great national championship game
going down to the final moments. Call it a toss-up.
The Rose Bowl
pits Southern California (10-2) and Illinois (9-3) with a distinct
advantage for Southern Cal (USC) because it is the only other team
among the 10 BCS bowl contestants that has a perfect 25 score on the
defensive side of the ball. USC, like Ohio State, is in the Top 10
nationally in all 5 defensive categories, ranking No. 2 in Total
Defense and No. 4 in both Rushing Defense and Scoring Defense. Illinois
is Good in 2 categories and Average in 3 others for a total of 17 out
of 25.
Both USC and Illinois tie for the lowest total score with
15 among the 5 offensive categories. USC is only 1 of 2 teams to rate
Average in every offensive category. Illinois is Great in Rushing
Offense (No. 5 nationally) and Terrible in Passing Offense (No. 114
nationally).
The question is "Can USC's top-rated rush defense
stop Illinois' top-rated rushing offense?" I think the Trojans can. USC
has far more experience at this level than Illinois, and a great
defense generally stops a great offense when the great offense meets
better competition.
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl should prove to be
an interesting clash between Oklahoma (11-2) and West Virginia (10-2).
Oklahoma scores out a little better on offense (21 to 18) and West
Virginia scores a little better on defense (22 to 20). Oklahoma's total
score is 41, the same as LSU's, and West Virginia's is 40. Another good
contest.
The Oklahoma Sooners are Great in 4 categories: Scoring
Offense (No. 3 nationally), Pass Efficiency Offense (No. 2 nationally),
Scoring Defense (No. 9 nationally) and Rushing Defense (No. 8
nationally). The West Virginia Mountaineers are Great in 3 categories:
Rushing Offense (No. 4 nationally), Total Defense (No. 4 nationally)
and Scoring Defense (No. 7 nationally). West Virginia is Terrible in
Passing Offense (No. 113 nationally).
Look for West Virginia to
run, run, run and Oklahoma to use its great rushing defense to stop
them. While Oklahoma is no Ohio State defensively, they bring much more
experience to the table, having played in 3 national championship games
in the past 7 years. The Sooners beat Florida State 13-2 for the
national title in 2000, lost to LSU 21-14 in 2003 and lost to USC 55-19
in 2004. West Virginia has yet to play in a national championship game.
Oklahoma
should win this game. The Sooners have to be smarting after last year's
humiliating 43-42 loss to Boise State in last year's Fiesta Bowl.
Oklahoma returns to the same bowl game as last year's loss and has some
unfinished business, like winning against a better team this year.
The
FedEx Orange Bowl game between Virginia Tech (11-2) and Kansas (11-1)
should also be interesting. Virginia Tech has the 3rd highest total
defensive score (24 of 25) among the 10 bowl teams.
The Hokies
are Great in Scoring Defense (No. 2 nationally), Pass Efficiency
Defense (No. 4 nationally), Total Defense and Rushing Defense (both No.
5 nationally). Virginia Tech's offense is Average to Poor so the Hokies
better be good on defense.
Kansas has the best offensive score
(23 of 25) among the 10 bowl teams. The Jayhawks are Great in 3
categories: Scoring Offense (No. 2 nationally), Total Offense (No. 6
nationally) and Pass Efficiency Offense (No. 7 nationally).
Kansas
is also Great in 3 defensive categories: Scoring Defense (No. 5
nationally), Rushing Defense (No. 7 nationally) and Pass Efficiency
Defense (No. 10 nationally). The Jayhawks and the only team among the
10 bowl teams rated Great in 6 categories. Their loss to Missouri hurt
a bunch; they just might send Virginia Tech home with a loss.
The
Allstate Sugar Bowl game brings Hawaii (12-0) face-to-face with Georgia
(10-2). On paper Hawaii has a much better offense, scoring Great in 4
categories: Scoring Offense and Passing Offense (both No. 1
nationally), Total Offense and Pass Efficiency Offense (both No. 3
nationally). The Warriors have Colt Brennan, a quarterback to be feared.
Hawaii's
defense in not good but neither is Georgia's offense; the Bulldogs,
like the USC Trojans, are Average across the board. Georgia's defense
is better but its Pass Efficiency Defense is Average. Georgia has
played much better competition than Hawaii and should win this game,
but I have seen Colt Brennan pass, and he is THAT good.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Ed
Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary
on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and
Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate,
delight and motivate you the reader.
Read my articles on "How to
Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss", "The
Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With
Them" and my 14 consecutive weekly wrap-up articles on the 2007 College
Football Season.
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