The first week of the NFL season is in the books and
what stood out was line movement. In short, the line movement went in
the right direction, meaning the public and the sharpies were correct
most of the time. This didn’t appear to be the case with the first game
of the season, as the Steelers went from a 6 point favorite down to
minus 1 because of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers won
by 11, and the line movement was even incorrect on the total, which was
bet down to 36 but sailed over the total.
However, the first
Sunday was a very different story. Eleven of the first 13 NFL games
were bet under the total with the line movement going steadily
downward. And nine went under the total. What bettors were going by was
past history: Defenses are ahead of the offenses this time of year, and
games are more common going under the total. 3 weeks ago I wrote an
article about how in Week 1 of the NFL preseason the unders went
11-4-1. That was the case in Week 1 of the regular season, as well. In
fact, nine of the first 10 games Sunday went under the total.
The
largest line movement on a total was the Saints/Browns game, which was
bet down from 40 to 36. Everyone collected as the Saints won 19-14.
This wasn’t a surprise as the Saints had a terrible showing offensively
during preseason as they tried to get acclimated to a new playbook of
head coach Sean Payton. And Cleveland had all kinds of injuries to its
offensive line plus they were working in a very young quarterback in
Charlie Frye. The Browns ended up with 186 total yards in the opener
against what is expected to be a bad Saints defense.
There was
considerable line movement for the under in the Falcons/Panthers game,
going from 42 to 38.5. Both teams run conservative, run-oriented
offenses that eat up the clock. Atlanta won the game 20-6 as Carolina
could muster only 215 total yards (65 rushing). Not having
game-breaking WR Steve Smith was a major blow to the Carolina offense,
as well. This is nothing new as teams are generally slow to come
together on offense throughout September.
In addition, the
underdog covered 11 games this week. Dogs often bark loud the first two
weeks of the NFL season as so many changes have taken place. Ten teams
have new NFL head coaches. That’s a lot of new personnel and playbooks
to learn. Speaking of playbooks, how about the Lions and new offensive
coordinator Mike Martz? Neither team topped 265 yards as the
ball-control Seahawks won (yawn) 9-6. Most remarkable about that game
was Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck, who completed 25-of-30 passes!
The
Ravens' defense, as usual, looked incredibly sharp, shutting out Tampa
Bay and allowing just 142 total yards while forcing 3 turnovers!
Getting Steve McNair makes this an interesting team to watch. McNair
completed 17 of 27 passes for 181 yards and no interceptions against
the league's No. 1 defense from last season. RB Jamal Lewis looked
strong, and the Ravens sacked Chris Simms twice and held Carnell
"Cadillac" Williams to 22 yards rushing on eight carries.
One
other thing to keep in mind is the Denver Broncos. Denver’s great
running game was fine against the Rams, rushing for 161 yards, a strong
6.4 yards per carry. Yet, they lost 18-10 as Ram RB Stephen Jackson had
121 yards, 5.5 ypc. The goat was (who else?) Bronco QB Jake Plummer,
who threw three picks and no TDs, reminiscent of the egg he laid in his
last game that meant something – the AFC Championship home loss to
Pittsburgh. When will Mike Shanahan turn to rookie QB Jay Cutler? I
wouldn’t be surprised to see sooner than later, meaning before the end
of the season. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.