Why would the odds maker make adjustments you ask?
Simply put my friend, the reason why is because the odds maker already
knows what today's “Joe Public” bettor will do and that is to pounce on
the system or trend play or in the case of bad weather jump on the
“UNDER” and when hearing about an injury jump on the opposing team like
there is no tomorrow.
Personally, when hearing of a team
suffering an injury to virtually any player with the exception of the
QB, I have found it very profitable to play the ole “wait and see”
game, meaning that later in the week once Joe Public has influenced the
line that value will probably be found on the side of the team with the
injury!
Below you will find a couple of NFL system plays dated
since 1990 that have been quite profitable because of the fact that
they are very uncommon in frequency and secondly because they combine
solid handicapping theory, meaning that there is rhyme and reason as to
why they occur!
1) Play against teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game if they lost the 1st game and won the 2nd game. 15-4-1 ATS 79%
What
makes this system so useful is the fact that it is based on straight up
wins and losses in a teams previous two games which allows a
handicapper to see a prevailing pattern, in this pattern the team in
question falls into two different handicapping situations that cannot
be overlooked as the team in question will not only be in “Road Weary”
mode, but they will also be in a prime spot for a “Letdown”.
2)
Play against a team playing their 3rd consecutive home game if they are
a dog of more than 3 points and they lost their 2 previous games in
straight up fashion. 10-4 ATS 72%
Like the above system, is a
very uncommon but very effective situation indeed when considering that
six different teams played three straight home games during the 2003
season but none ended up classifying for the system.
The last
time this system came into play happened at the end of the 2001 season
when the Panthers of Carolina played host to the Patriots after coming
off consecutive home losses to St. Louis and Arizona.
Those of us
that were fortunate enough to have wagered on New England in that
contest were rewarded with a 38-6 Patriot win and cover!
Football
Forecastor is home to the nations most prolific sports handicapper, we
specialize in NFL and College Football handicapping, we take sports
betting to a whole new level by treating sports wagering as an
investment.
Over the past 30 plus yrs, I have been on both sides
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Greatly Benefits from my Superior Handicapping expertise in the
sporting arena.
Football Forecastor has been an internet based
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